Iowa +10.5 2.2% play
In 2016 Kirk Ferentz and Jim Harbough faced off for the first time @ Iowa, the only meeting in Iowa, and Iowa was +24 dog and won outright 14-13. In 2019 they faced off again and Michigan was a 4 point home favorite and won 10-3, and then in the Big Ten Championship last year Michigan an 11.5 point favorite won 42-3. This line suggests that Iowa is worse, and Michigan is better and I don’t think I agree with that. Michigan has faced a far worse schedule with their opponent ypp differential -1.65 on the season and that’s with playing Maryland who is +2. Kirk Ferentz has been playing that Big Ten Championship game with his team all week. It was a 14-3 half time score, and Michigan’s 2 TD’s came on a trick 75 yard TD pass, and a 67 yard run. Iowa back at home where they have been very good has some value here.
Both teams are going up against elite defenses that rank top 25. Over the past 4 seasons Iowa just 7-7 vs. top 25 defenses, but 4 of those 7 losses came by a TD or less. While Michigan is just 7-8 vs. top 25 defenses over the last 4 seasons, after a 3-1 season last year. I think last year was a bit of an outlier for Jim Harbough and this team. They will have a young inexperienced JJ McCarthy making his first road start here, and Michigan’s offensive line thus far ranks 128th in sack % allowed, while Iowa has 12 sacks already. I think there is an opportunity for Iowa to get some points on defense, and their special teams should really be able to help them in the field position game. The only reason they got killed last year was they could not stop the running game. They are far better stopping the run at home, and this should be a tight game.
